Today's observation 6-30: The domestic molybdenum market has a narrower room for price decline, and the transaction is gradually unfolding

[Good macro fundamentals]

As economic activities continue to normalize, the scope of China's recovery has expanded. China's economic growth is expected to reach 8.5% this year. With the gradual reduction of the low base effect, the economy returns to the trend growth rate, and the growth rate is expected to slow to 5.4% in 2022. [Molybdenum concentrate transactions are gradually unfolding]

Recently, transactions in the molybdenum concentrate market have continued. The mainstream transaction price is 2230-2250 yuan/ton, and some transactions are at lower prices. On the whole, recent transactions have dominated the profit-taking behavior of holders. At the same time, we have noticed that as transactions continue to unfold, the low-price spot in the market continues to be consumed, and market sentiment has begun to fluctuate. Enthusiasm is also increasing.

[Steel recruits ferro-molybdenum to break 12,000 tons, market information increases]

As of today, the total amount of ferro-molybdenum in June is 11,802 tons (TISCO’s bidding volume is calculated at 200 tons). A Hebei steel plant tendered 90 tons of ferromolybdenum, and the delivery date was July 31. A steel plant in Shanxi tendered for ferromolybdenum, each with a particle size of 100 tons. The bidding price is to be announced. The delivery date is July 10, and the delivery time is tight.

Due to the rapid and excessive increase in molybdenum prices in this round, downstream transactions have not been able to expand in large quantities. As the molybdenum prices fall, low-priced inventory in the market is constantly being consumed.

[International molybdenum market transactions are light, the price center shifts down]

Yesterday, the international molybdenum market some of the holders' quotation center has shifted, some holders are quoting around 18.3 US dollars / pound of molybdenum, and some buyers expect the price to be close to 18 US dollars / pound of molybdenum. China's ferromolybdenum quotation dropped to about US$40/kg of molybdenum. The overall wait-and-see atmosphere of the market is relatively strong.

On the whole, the overall economic fundamentals of the market are still good, the production of molybdenum raw materials in the Americas has been reduced, and the pattern of continuous recovery of demand has not changed. However, it has also been noted that with the massive purchase of molybdenum raw materials by manufacturers, social inventories have been reduced to a certain extent, the mismatch of supply and demand may be alleviated, and market expectations will also be adjusted and changed.

[I think]

Recently, with a large number of steel recruits entering the market, demand support has become more and more obvious. At the same time, the market's low-priced spot continues to be digested, and some companies are also becoming more proactive in purchasing. On the whole, the fundamentals of supply and demand have not changed, and the overall situation of the molybdenum market remains optimistic.